# Pred vs Kash vs Kalshi vs Polymarket: Liquidity and Participation
**Q1 2025** — *Liquidity Intelligence Console benchmark report*
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## Methodology
We measure spreads (bps), depth (top 5 levels), volume, unique traders, and participation concentration (Gini). Pred and Kash are sourced from our chain indexers and normalized pipeline; Kalshi and Polymarket from incumbent API collectors. All figures are rolled up by platform and date. Full definitions (spread, depth, Gini, health score): [METHODOLOGY.md](../METHODOLOGY.md).
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## 1. Total volume by platform
| Platform | Total volume (Q1 2025) |
|------------|-------------------------------|
| Pred | $42.5M |
| Kash | $18.2M |
| Kalshi | $115.0M |
| Polymarket | $350.5M |
*Source: Pred/Kash — `market_daily_aggregates.total_volume` (sum by platform_id, date in range). Kalshi/Polymarket — `incumbent_daily_metrics` (metric_name = total_volume). Date range: Q1 2025.*
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## 2. Active markets
| Platform | Active markets (Q1 2025) |
|------------|----------------------------------|
| Pred | 150 |
| Kash | 320 |
| Kalshi | 540 |
| Polymarket | 850 |
*Source: Pred/Kash — `markets` (count where status = open, platform_id, and market has activity in date range). Kalshi/Polymarket — `incumbent_daily_metrics` (metric_name = active_markets_count). Date range: Q1 2025.*
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## 3. Average spread (bps)
| Platform | Avg spread (bps) (Q1 2025) |
|------------|------------------------------------|
| Pred | 185 bps |
| Kash | 350 bps |
| Kalshi | 250 bps |
| Polymarket | 210 bps |
*Source: Pred/Kash — `market_daily_aggregates.avg_spread` (average across market-days by platform_id, date in range). Kalshi/Polymarket — `incumbent_daily_metrics` (metric_name = avg_spread). Date range: Q1 2025.*
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## 4. Market health score (Q1 2025)
| Platform | Median health score (0–100) |
|------------|-----------------------------|
| Pred | 82 |
| Kash | 75 |
| Kalshi | 88 |
| Polymarket | 92 |
*Source: `market_daily_aggregates.health_score` (median by platform_id, date in range). Incumbents: health_score where available from incumbent_daily_metrics or N/A. Date range: Q1 2025.*
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## 5. Participation concentration (Gini) — Pred & Kash
| Platform | Median Gini participation (0 = even, 1 = concentrated) |
|----------|----------------------------------------------------------|
| Pred | 0.42 |
| Kash | 0.65 |
*Source: `market_daily_aggregates.gini_participation` (median by platform_id, date in range). Gini not shown for incumbents (different data model). Date range: Q1 2025.*
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## Narrative (Q1 2025)
**Pred** is strong on **tight spreads and depth** in Q1 2025: order-book execution and sub-2% spreads show up in the avg spread table (185 bps vs Polymarket's 210 bps); depth and volume are traceable to chain. **Kash** stands out on **social–liquidity linkage**: engagement (likes, retweets, views) can be joined to market volume via `social_market_links` and `social_metrics`; the Gini table (0.65) highlights that Kash liquidity is slightly more whale-dominated compared to Pred's more retail-driven structure (0.42). **Kalshi** and **Polymarket** provide the incumbent benchmark for volume and active markets; our methodology keeps definitions aligned so founders can compare Pred and Kash to the same yardstick.
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## Caveats
- **Data freshness**: Pred/Kash aggregates depend on indexer and analytics job schedules; daily aggregates typically run after midnight UTC. Incumbent data depends on external API availability and rate limits.
- **Incumbent sources**: Kalshi and Polymarket figures are from our incumbent collector; definitions are aligned where possible but may differ from each platform’s own reporting.
- **Example data**: This report uses mock data for Q1 2025 for illustration purposes until live data is fully backfilled.
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*Liquidity Intelligence Console — every table cites source and date range. Forwardable benchmark report for founders.*